对火星轨道变化问题的最后解释 (3 / 5)
        2.4.2Errorinplanetarylongitudes

        SincethesymplecticmapspreservetotalenergyandtotalangularmomentumofN-bodydynamicalsystemsinherentlywell，thedegreeoftheirpreservationmaynotbeagoodmeasureoftheaccuracyofnumericalintegrations，especiallyasameasureofthepositionalerrorofplanets，i.e.theerrorinplanetarylongitudes.Toestimatethenumericalerrorintheplanetarylongitudes，weperformedthefollowingprocedures.Weparedtheresultofourmainlong-termintegrationswithsometestintegrations，whichspanmuchshorterperiodsbutwithmuchhigheraccuracythanthemainintegrations.Forthispurpose，weperformedamuchmoreaccurateintegrationwithastepsizeof0.125d(1/64ofthemainintegrations)spanning3×105yr，startingwiththesameinitialconditionsasintheN?1integration.Weconsiderthatthistestintegrationprovidesuswitha‘pseudo-true’solutionofplanetaryorbitalevolution.Next，weparethetestintegrationwiththemainintegration，N?1.Fortheperiodof3×105yr，weseeadifferenceinmeananomaliesoftheEarthbetweenthetwointegrationsof～0.52°(inthecaseoftheN?1integration).Thisdifferencecanbeextrapolatedtothevalue～8700°，about25rotationsofEarthafter5Gyr，sincetheerroroflongitudesincreaseslinearlywithtimeinthesymplecticmap.Similarly，thelongitudeerrorofPlutocanbeestimatedas～12°.ThisvalueforPlutoismuchbetterthantheresultinKino**a&Nakai(1996)wherethedifferenceisestimatedas～60°.

        3Numericalresults–I.Glanceattherawdata

        Inthissectionwebrieflyreviewthelong-termstabilityofplanetaryorbitalmotionthroughsomesnapshotsofrawnumericaldata.Theorbitalmotionofplanetsindicateslong-termstabilityinallofournumericalintegrations:noorbitalcrossingsnorcloseencountersbetweenanypairofplanetstookplace.

        3.1Generaldescriptionofthestabilityofplanetaryorbits

        First，webrieflylookatthegeneralcharacterofthelong-termstabilityofplanetaryorbits.Ourinterestherefocusesparticularlyontheinnerfourterrestrialplanetsforwhichtheorbitaltime-scalesaremuchshorterthanthoseoftheouterfiveplanets.AswecanseeclearlyfromtheplanarorbitalconfigurationsshowninFigs2and3，orbitalpositionsoftheterrestrialplanetsdifferlittlebetweentheinitialandfinalpartofeachnumericalintegration，whichspansseveralGyr.Thesolidlinesdenotingthepresentorbitsoftheplanetsliealmostwithintheswarmofdotseveninthefinalpartofintegrations(b)and(d).Thisindicatesthatthroughouttheentireintegrationperiodthealmostregularvariationsofplanetaryorbitalmotionremainnearlythesameastheyareatpresent.

        Verticalviewofthefourinnerplanetaryorbits(fromthez-axisdirection)attheinitialandfinalpartsoftheintegrationsN±1.Theaxesunitsareau.Thexy-planeissettotheinvariantplaneofSolarsystemtotalangularmomentum.(a)TheinitialpartofN+1(t=0to0.0547×109yr).(b)ThefinalpartofN+1(t=4.9339×108to4.9886×109yr).(c)TheinitialpartofN?1(t=0to?0.0547×109yr).(d)ThefinalpartofN?1(t=?3.9180×109to?3.9727×109yr).Ineachpanel，atotalof23684pointsareplottedwithanintervalofabout2190yrover5.47×107yr.Solidlinesineachpaneldenotethepresentorbitsofthefourterrestrialplanets(takenfromDE245).

        ThevariationofeccentricitiesandorbitalinclinationsfortheinnerfourplanetsintheinitialandfinalpartoftheintegrationN+1isshowninFig.4.Asexpected，thecharacterofthevariationofplanetaryorbitalelementsdoesnotdiffersignificantlybetweentheinitialandfinalpartofeachintegration，atleastforVenus，EarthandMars.TheelementsofMercury，especiallyitseccentricity，seemtochangetoasignificantextent.Thisispartlybecausetheorbitaltime-scaleoftheplanetistheshortestofalltheplanets，whichleadstoamorerapidorbitalevolutionthanotherplanets;theinnermostplanetmaybenearesttoinstability.ThisresultappearstobeinsomeagreementwithLaskar's(1994，1996)expectationsthatlargeandirregularvariationsappearintheeccentricitiesandinclinationsofMercuryonatime-scaleofseveral109yr.However，theeffectofthepossibleinstabilityoftheorbitofMercurymaynotfatallyaffecttheglobalstabilityofthewholeplanetarysystemowingtothesmallmassofMercury.Wewillmentionbrieflythelong-termorbitalevolutionofMercurylaterinSection4usinglow-passfilteredorbitalelements.

        Theorbitalmotionoftheouterfiveplanetsseemsrigorouslystableandquiteregularoverthistime-span(seealsoSection5).

        3.2Time–frequencymaps

        Althoughtheplanetarymotionexhibitsverylong-termstabilitydefinedasthenon-existenceofcloseencounterevents，thechaoticnatureofplanetarydynamicscanchangetheoscillatoryperiodandamplitudeofplanetaryorbitalmotiongraduallyoversuchlongtime-spans.Evensuchslightfluctuationsoforbitalvariationinthefrequencydomain，particularlyinthecaseofEarth，canpotentiallyhaveasignificanteffectonitssurfaceclimatesystemthroughsolarinsolationvariation(cf.Berger1988).

        Togiveanoverviewofthelong-termchangeinperiodicityinplanetaryorbitalmotion，weperformedmanyfastFouriertransformations(FFTs)alongthetimeaxis，andsuperposedtheresultingperiodgramstodrawtwo-dimensionaltime–frequencymaps.Thespecificapproachtodrawingthesetime–frequencymapsinthispaperisverysimple–muchsimplerthanthewaveletanalysisorLaskar's(1990，1993)frequencyanalysis.

        Dividethelow-passfilteredorbitaldataintomanyfragmentsofthesamelength.Thelengthofeachdatasegmentshouldbeamultipleof2inordertoapplytheFFT.

        Eachfragmentofthedatahasalargeoverlappingpart:forexample，whentheithdatabeginsfromt=tiandendsatt=ti+T，thenextdatasegmentrangesfromti+δT≤ti+δT+T，whereδT?T.WecontinuethisdivisionuntilwereachacertainnumberNbywhichtn+Treachesthetotalintegrationlength.

        WeapplyanFFTtoeachofthedatafragments，andobtainnfrequencydiagrams.

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